Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 22.388275 26.815388 31.666460 37.348114 43.790563 50.839433 59.104671
2025-09-28 14.805626 20.333803 27.016512 35.564775 46.076297 58.445320 73.956193
2025-10-05 11.697914 17.863452 25.889096 36.827699 51.052748 68.621311 91.625284
2025-10-12 9.486428 15.920973 24.853364 37.693264 55.167783 77.591474 107.949738
2025-10-19 7.815561 14.326134 23.911341 38.354531 58.797233 85.890062 123.597629
2025-10-26 6.614484 13.163342 23.336652 39.321003 62.727822 94.612627 140.029258
2025-11-02 5.352522 11.629812 21.944793 38.857426 64.477562 100.328622 152.549604
2025-11-09 4.472341 10.558890 21.094528 39.046036 67.066801 107.204578 166.802423
2025-11-16 3.676539 9.465102 20.031471 38.737906 68.803825 112.850749 179.457439
2025-11-23 2.923886 8.276355 18.618528 37.674479 69.233164 116.527772 189.358728
2025-11-30 2.564006 7.829521 18.466841 38.674670 72.902559 125.067622 206.479378
2025-12-07 2.081728 6.984260 17.438644 38.033057 73.845327 129.495926 217.685722
2025-12-14 1.785285 6.543069 17.204756 38.902080 77.517235 138.547491 236.547402
2025-12-21 1.316021 5.502458 15.583264 37.062654 76.537898 140.387692 244.763275
2025-12-28 1.152161 5.260701 15.627013 38.366592 81.001485 150.949088 266.543201
2026-01-04 0.987143 4.956598 15.477459 39.260021 84.767787 160.507321 287.044748
2026-01-11 0.836217 4.639671 15.242037 39.942473 88.168740 169.569122 307.014536
2026-01-18 0.722202 4.406576 15.169054 40.939759 92.174312 179.740838 328.991059
2026-01-25 0.568891 3.946707 14.438459 40.461424 93.396080 185.298327 343.778507
2026-02-01 0.465704 3.637006 14.042232 40.656043 95.869214 193.015669 362.201358
2026-02-08 0.366615 3.281740 13.448563 40.338092 97.315840 199.001365 377.949954
2026-02-15 0.269811 2.858100 12.562204 39.240634 97.147811 202.158113 389.126029
2026-02-22 0.232213 2.741372 12.580423 40.272838 101.253416 212.892031 413.034386